The Costs of Climate Change Impacts for India: A Preliminary Analysis

India has emphasised inclusion of adaptation as a part of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). For understanding adaptation requirements, we need to understand and value climate change impacts first. This preliminary assessment tries to estimate the cost of global climate change impacts for India. The study aims at estimating first order costs for loss in agriculture productivity and impact on higher power generation requirement with increasing temperatures within a long term global integrated assessment modelling framework. The study also attempts to put a value on the health impacts from temperature rise.

 

The analysis highlights some important results. Climate change will result in significant economic losses for India across sectors. Production losses in rice, wheat and maize alone could go upto 208 Bn US$ and 366 Bn US$ in 2050 and 2100 respectively (all prices are in 2010 US$). Additional power generation could require incremental capital investment of 33 Bn US$ and 123 Bn US$ in 2050 and 2100 respectively for meeting higher cooling energy needs of India. Health impacts should be best measured in terms of deaths due to higher incidence of diseases. Diarrheal deaths will decrease with increasing incomes, deaths due to higher spread of Malaria will increase significantly to 5000 in 2050 to 19500 in 2100. Deaths related to Dengue will also increase. If disease related deaths are valued at life time earnings, then loss of economic output will be 2.5 Bn US$ and 21 Bn US$ in 2050 and 2100 respectively.

 

Even with a fairly limited inclusion of sectors, and linear representation of cost of impacts, we arrive at a range of .45% - 1.19% of India’s GDP and .59% - 1.17% of India’s GDP in 2050 and 2100 as the cost of global inaction on mitigating climate change. When non-linear impacts at higher temperatures are included and other sectors are also valued, the present estimate of cost of inaction is bound to multiply many folds. This analysis intends to provide a solid basis for informed discussions around this issue in India as well as a as a ground for more detailed and insightful studies on costs of climate impacts for India.